Denver Schools Grapple with Enrollment Declines, Potential Closures Ahead

Denver Public Schools (DPS) is confronting a significant enrollment decline this fall, recording a loss of 1,780 students, a number that surpasses initial forecasts. Superintendent Alex Marrero indicated that the district might soon need to consider closing some schools as a response to this downturn.

During a recent school board meeting, Marrero alluded to a provision within the board’s four-year moratorium on school closures, which permits action in cases of "substantial shifts" in enrollment or funding. However, he didn't specify a timeline for potential closure recommendations. According to district policy, such recommendations must be made by November for the following school year. A spokesperson clarified that, given the timing, the board is not in a position to vote on closures this year, though operational changes could be implemented.

This year's challenges have already led to some adjustments, such as the elimination of ninth grade at Robert F. Smith STEAM Academy, where enrollment fell below 20 students in that grade. Initially designed to cater to 100 students, the school, which opened in 2021 and drew inspiration from historically Black colleges, currently has just 24 students across grades 10 to 12.

The enrollment issues are part of a larger trend seen across Colorado, where school districts are grappling with declining student numbers and the contentious school closures that often follow. In the last three years, DPS has either closed or partially closed 13 schools due to low enrollment, and fifteen charter schools have faced similar fates.

Last year, the school board approved a four-year moratorium on closures to allow communities time to adjust after previous shutdowns. DPS’s enrollment has been on a downward trajectory since peaking in 2019. While last fall's drop was approximately 1,200 students, the district had anticipated a further reduction of 1,400 to 1,500 this year, only to find the actual decrease to be about 300 beyond expectations.

Factors contributing to this enrollment decline include lower birth rates and high housing costs forcing families out of the area, alongside a decrease in newly arriving immigrant students. This year, DPS welcomed just 233 new immigrant students within the first five weeks of school, a stark contrast to the over 1,470 who enrolled during the same period in 2023, which marked a five-year high. Compounding the issue, more than 570 immigrant students departed in the first month of this school year, resulting in a net loss.

Andrew Huber, the district's executive director of enrollment and campus planning, pointed out that the net loss of students for two consecutive years, compounded by a notable acceleration over the past 12 to 18 months, is a key reason for the larger-than-expected decline.

Enrollment Trends and Demographics

Data reveals that elementary and high school enrollment witnessed the most significant declines this fall, each dropping by over 800 students, while middle school numbers remained relatively steady. The drop in elementary school numbers aligns with decreasing birth rates, but reasons for high school declines are more complex.

Several comprehensive high schools, including Thomas Jefferson, John F. Kennedy, and Abraham Lincoln, fell short of their enrollment targets by over 100 students. Other schools, such as George Washington High and South High, also recorded similar discrepancies, missing projections by 72 and 55 students, respectively.

As schools receive funding based on enrollment, those that do not meet projections must reimburse the district for absent students. Despite these challenges, many schools have managed to compensate for losses with leftover funding from previous years.

Preschool enrollment has also taken a hit this fall, partially due to a decline in demand for half-day classes and those conducted primarily in Spanish. The greatest reductions can be seen in the southwest section of Denver, where approximately 820 students were lost. Other regions, like the northwest, southeast, and near northeast areas, experienced declines exceeding 250 students each.

Interestingly, even the far northeast region, long considered a growth area due to new single-family housing developments, has observed a downturn in student counts this year, likely correlating with a slowdown in new housing projects.

For now, as DPS assesses its strategy in light of ongoing enrollment challenges, the school community continues to navigate these turbulent shifts.

Melanie Asmar is the bureau chief for Chalkbeat Colorado. Contact Melanie at [email protected].